The way people shop, pay, and engage with commerce has shifted more in the last five years than in the previous fifty. This transformation is being propelled by demographic forces, technological leaps, and strategic investments.
The region has, in many respects, leapfrogged the traditional commerce evolution cycle and is now setting benchmarks globally. Winning in this environment demands alignment with three strategic imperatives: understanding the new consumer, modernizing infrastructure at the core, and building trust and loyalty in a low-friction economy.
1. The New Consumer Is Mobile‑First and AI‑Enabled
Demographics are rewriting the rules. With one of the youngest populations in the world, the Middle East is primed for rapid shifts in consumer behavior¹. These digital natives use their mobile phones for nearly every aspect of their lives, from social interaction to financial transactions. In the UAE, 37% of all purchases are now made via mobile, one of the highest rates globally².
Layered on top of this generational shift is the rise of artificial intelligence as a direct commerce driver. By 2030, AI is expected to contribute 19%³ of the Middle East’s retail GDP, the highest share of AI impact across all major sectors. This means that purchase decisions are increasingly shaped by algorithms, recommendations, and automated interactions — not just human intent.
Finally, the region’s rapid progress has been enabled by massive investment from governments, fintechs, and financial institutions. In Saudi Arabia, for instance, cashless payments reached 79% by the end of 2024, achieving the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 target⁴.
2. Modernization Must Go Beyond the Digital Façade
For years, “digital transformation” in banking meant building slick mobile apps or refreshed websites. Today, modernization must penetrate the core infrastructure of financial institutions and sellers alike.
For banks, this means moving beyond customer-facing upgrades to overhaul legacy core banking systems. The most forward-looking institutions are migrating to cloud-native, microservices architectures that can deliver agility, scalability, and operational efficiency. This is the foundation for delivering next-generation customer experiences.
For sellers, the shift is equally profound. The old separation of “offline” and “online” is gone. Commerce is now omnichannel, consumers expect to interact and transact seamlessly across physical and digital touchpoints. At the same time, the definition of “seller” has expanded to include millions of creators and small merchants. This demands flexible, modular commerce platforms that can be tailored to specific needs and localized to accept diverse payment methods.
3. Loyalty and Trust Are the New Drivers of Sustainable Advantage
Digital transformation has lowered switching costs. Regulatory reforms have made it easier for consumers to move between financial institutions. As a result, loyalty has eroded: 79% of consumers say they would switch banks for a better value proposition or digital experience⁵.
In this environment, hyper-personalization is no longer a differentiator, it is a requirement. Institutions that leverage data to understand micro-segments and build offers that are fit for purpose — from lifestyle-linked rewards to sector‑specific benefits — will be best positioned to compete.
Trust, meanwhile, is facing growing challenges. Cybercrime, amplified by AI, is projected to cost the global economy $10.5 trillion annually by 2025⁶. The sophistication of attacks is rising, and the cost of a breach is more than financial – it undermines brand confidence. The response must be equally sophisticated: AI-powered fraud prevention that analyses customer behavior in real-time to intercept threats before they materialize. This requires sustained investment and collaboration across the ecosystem.
The Next Frontier: Agentic Commerce
While these three imperatives demand immediate attention, a new paradigm is emerging: agentic commerce.
In past decades, commerce evolved from in-store to online, then to mobile. The next leap will see consumers delegating purchasing authority to AI agents. This shift will transform the buyer-seller dynamic: merchants will need to market to machines as much as to humans, and both parties must trust that these agents act in the consumer’s best interest.
Visa Intelligent Commerce is working to lay the foundation for this shift, collaborating with leading AI platforms to ensure that agentic commerce is secure, transparent, and beneficial for all stakeholders. We expect to see these capabilities in market by 2026, including in the Middle East.
The Leadership Blueprint for the Next Commerce Wave
The pace of change will increasingly reward leaders who adopt an integrated approach, addressing these interconnected imperatives in parallel:
Redefine the customer lens. Invest in understanding the next-generation consumer: their digital behaviors, their openness to AI-driven recommendations, and their demand for seamless omnichannel experiences.
Rebuild the core. Modernize infrastructure from the inside out. Cloud-native platforms are not just more efficient — they are the enablers of speed, personalization, and resilience.
Compete on trust. Make hyper-personalization and AI-driven fraud prevention central to strategy. In a low-friction switching environment, loyalty is earned daily.
² https://www.wam.ae/en/article/bkhbk0o-uae-leads-world-mobile-shopping-visa
⁴ https://www.sama.gov.sa/en-US/News/Pages/news-1083.aspx
⁵ Walter Lironi Interview, Economy Middle East: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hg9fo3fW8i4&t=147s