Key findings from VBEI’s 2026 U.S. Holiday Spending Outlook include:
- U.S. holiday retail sales are forecast to rise 4.5% year over year, marking the strongest holiday sales growth since 2021.
- On average, consumers plan to spend $777 on holiday gifts, up 5.6% from 2025, signaling continued willingness to spend even as shoppers remain value-conscious amid elevated inflation.
- Physical gifts are winning a greater share of holiday budgets, as higher travel costs lead many consumers to prioritize merchandise over experiences.
SAN FRANCISCO — U.S. consumers are poised to keep the registers ringing this holiday season. New research from Visa Business and Economic Insights (VBEI) forecasts U.S. holiday retail sales will rise 4.5% year-over-year in November and December, the strongest growth since 2021.
The outlook points to continued consumer resilience, supported by solid income growth and household wealth, even as inflation influences where holiday dollars go. VBEI expects prices for holiday-related goods to rise approximately 3.4%, with inflation-adjusted holiday spending increasing 1.1%.
“Consumers are heading into the holidays with the capacity and willingness to spend, even if they’re being thoughtful about where those dollars go,” said Michael Brown, principal U.S. economist at Visa. “Income growth continues to provide an important foundation for spending, and while higher prices remain part of the picture, we expect another healthy holiday season.”
Consumers are spending more, even as they stay selective
Consumers say they plan to spend an average of $777 on holiday gifts this year, up from $736 in 2025, an increase of 5.6%.
That willingness to spend comes as consumers continue to adapt to higher prices. Roughly one-third of consumers earning less than $100,000 say they plan to switch to lower-cost brands or stores for holiday gifts compared with last year, underscoring the continued importance of value.
Travel tops wish lists, but consumers are prioritizing physical gifts
Consumers may be dreaming about experiences, but their holiday budgets tell a more traditional story. More than half of survey respondents put travel and live events at the top of their holiday wish lists, yet only 15% say they are prioritizing spending on experiences, compared with 27% prioritizing physical gifts.
Higher travel costs are contributing to that disconnect. VBEI analysis of anonymized Visa credit card transactions found that households earning more than $200,000 were the only income group to increase both holiday airfare bookings and spending in September, with trips booked up 29% and spending up 38% from a year earlier. In contrast, lower-income groups pulled back sharply on airfare booking and spending.
That could work in retailers’ favor. Because VBEI’s holiday sales measure focuses on retail and excludes travel and dining, dollars that might otherwise have gone toward holiday trips could instead flow toward physical gifts and other merchandise.
A resilient consumer enters an uncertain season
Despite slower job creation, positive real income growth and elevated household wealth continue to support consumer spending heading into the holidays. At the same time, shoppers remain attentive to prices, reinforcing a holiday season defined by both willingness to spend and a continued focus on value.
“Consumers are still spending, but they’re making deliberate choices about where their holiday dollars go,” Brown said. “That combination of healthy spending and continued focus on value is likely to define this holiday season.”
About Visa Business and Economic Insights (VBEI)
Visa Business and Economic Insights (VBEI) provides data-driven analysis of global economic trends, consumer spending patterns and the evolution of digital commerce, drawing on proprietary VisaNet transaction data, economic modeling and third-party research. The team publishes regular research across macroeconomics, consumer behavior and payments innovation. To subscribe: https://globalclient.visa.com/visaeconomicnews-subscribe
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