Executive Summary
Visa’s 2026 Global Economic Outlook finds Global GDP could grow 2.7% in 2026, matching the steady pace of recent years.
Business investment, particularly in AI infrastructure, is set to strengthen and offset moderating consumption.
Shifting trade patterns and demographic pressures continue to quietly rewire global commerce.
Generative AI is accelerating economic digitalization and reshaping what it means to be a small business.
A year of steady growth and transformation
The global economy is entering 2026 with surprising resilience and transformative momentum. While GDP is projected to grow a steady 2.7%, beneath this stability lies an economy being fundamentally rewired by innovation, strategic adaptation and new opportunities.
In the Visa 2026 Global Economic Outlook, Visa Business and Economic Insights (VBEI) economists describe 2026 as “far from average.” While output is expanding at a familiar pace, the structure of the global economy is being rewired. Businesses and consumers have continued adjusting to policy changes and uncertainty, and the result is a surprisingly resilient foundation heading into the new year.
Consumer spending remains stable
Consumer spending served as a stabilizing force throughout 2025, buoyed in part by recovering financial markets and enthusiasm around AI-driven innovation. Real consumer spending is expected to rise 2.4% in 2026, moderating from 2025 levels but still strong enough to anchor global growth.
Visa’s global Spending Momentum Index (SMI) reinforces this picture. Visa Business and Economic Insights has expanded the SMI to now cover over 80 countries representing 75% of global consumption. Throughout most of 2025, both discretionary and non‑discretionary spending held within a narrow range, suggesting steady underlying momentum. While emerging markets saw some softening due to higher interest rates and cooling prices, advanced economies, including the U.S., maintained a more consistent pace.
Global inflation is also expected to ease, falling from 3.4% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, driven in part by lower Chinese goods prices flowing through global supply chains. For consumers outside the U.S., where inflation remains comparatively elevated, this could bring additional relief.
Business investment steps up
As consumption growth eases, business investment is set to play a larger role in sustaining global expansion. Investment is accelerating in AI infrastructure and in sectors benefiting from lower policy uncertainty.
Companies continue broadening their supplier bases in response to shifting tariffs and de‑risking practices, further accelerating the fragmentation of global supply chains.
These shifts are also likely to fuel an increase in business travel in 2026, particularly for industries such as mining and technology that are more deeply integrated into evolving supply networks. The restructuring of supply chains also supports continued growth in cross-border commercial payments, which are recovering more quickly than domestic corporate payments.
GenAI adoption enters a new phase
If there is a singular force shaping the outlook, it is generative AI. VBEI analysis of anonymized spending data shows that adoption remains early but is expanding rapidly. Subscriptions to GenAI services still cluster in North American tech hubs, yet adoption is deepening across regions.
Small businesses are now outpacing consumers in embracing GenAI tools, an early signal that the technology may redefine the boundaries of what it means to be “small.” Lean teams supported by automation could soon rival the scale and reach of much larger firms.
Spending by small businesses that integrate AI are growing faster than those that do not, which could indicate those at the frontier are more rapidly expanding than their peers. And while many investors are looking to Silicon Valley for the next major AI return, faster adoption rates abroad suggest global markets may produce the next wave of AI-driven business models.
Demographics and digitalization reshape labor dynamics
While demographic shifts present challenges, businesses are responding with innovation. AI and digitalization are enabling companies to do more with existing workforces, helping firms navigate labor constraints while maintaining growth. Organizations that embrace these tools are finding new ways to scale efficiently in a changing labor landscape.
The opportunity ahead
The steadiness of 2026's growth projections mask an economy undergoing fundamental rewiring. For businesses, this creates a clear imperative: combine timely data and insights with the agility to adapt quickly, whether in supply chain relationships, technology adoption or payment infrastructure.
As VBEI’s outlook demonstrates, success in seemingly stable times requires the flexibility to respond to rapid underlying change. As the year unfolds, stay tuned as our team will continue to assist organizations to build this adaptive capacity today will be positioned not just to weather uncertainty, but to capitalize on the opportunities that transformation creates.
FAQs: What to watch in 2026
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Growth remains anchored by steady consumer spending, but the biggest shift is the acceleration in business investment, particularly in AI-related infrastructure. These gains are expected to offset softer consumption later in the year.
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Generative AI is reshaping business models, speeding digitalization, and creating new sources of productivity. Small businesses are adopting AI even faster than consumers, and companies that have integrated AI tools already show significantly higher spending and transaction growth.
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Supply chains continue to fragment and regionalize. Purchasing managers are diversifying suppliers due to tariffs and de‑risking mandates, contributing to intra‑regional trade accounting for roughly two‑thirds of global growth.
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The largest tension point is the possibility of an AI investment pullback. If returns fail to materialize, global GDP could slow to 1.8%. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected AI boom could push growth up to 3.1%. Equity valuations remain elevated, adding sensitivity to any shifts in market sentiment.