How is digital commerce evolving in today’s economy?
We’re seeing a significant increase in digital adoption by consumers in regional, smaller, “peripheral” cities outside the top-tier largest commercial centers. This means that more shoppers are harnessing the power to compare prices and find alternatives to constrain the effects of inflation — an important consideration for households today facing increasing stress on their budgets as inflation once again reaccelerates.
In our 2026 Midyear Global Economic Outlook, we analyzed nearly 600 cities and found that card-not-present transaction penetration in smaller, more peripheral markets has nearly doubled since before the pandemic (from about 31% to 56%).¹ We also found that markets with higher digital penetration see greater customer churn, with loyalty falling as the online share of spending rises.
That shift matters because it's unlocking growth and better serving consumers in places that are not yet fully mature digitally and enabling consumers to participate in the digital economy.
How are businesses adapting to remain competitive?
As digital commerce spreads, maintaining customer loyalty becomes more difficult and takes more than habit or proximity. Companies, whether they’re a merchant or financial institution, must now compete on price, experience and convenience at the same time.
How is consumer behavior changing?
We’re seeing consumers manage tighter budgets by reallocating rather than pulling back across the board. And this is the part that I think often gets overlooked: Consumers are responding to economic pressures with a different toolkit than they had earlier in the decade.
A few years ago, households absorbed higher prices with fewer ways to maneuver. Today, in a more digital environment, they can compare prices, switch providers, find deals, and trade down more quickly.
How is AI investment affecting the economy?
The easiest way to think about AI investment right now is as a bridge. The most visible effect today is the buildout around semiconductors, data centers, and cloud infrastructure. These AI-related investments are helping support growth in the near term, while the larger productivity payoff is still ahead.
But this is still the early chapter. The investment is what we can see today. The bigger question is how quickly companies move from building AI infrastructure to using it in ways that improve productivity, operations and customer experience.
What is the most important thing for the business community to understand about the economy right now?
Resilience is becoming more active across the board. Consumers are not simply absorbing higher costs; they are using digital tools to compare, switch and seek value. Businesses are not simply waiting for conditions to improve; many are investing in technology, infrastructure and new capabilities.
- Source: Visa Business and Economic Insights analysis of VisaNet data