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The evolution of eCommerce fraud
Digital commerce continues to grow at an extraordinary pace, with global online spending forecast to surpass $8 trillion by 2028.¹ And as eCommerce evolves, so does the risk of fraud attacks targeting merchants, issuers and payment networks. As a result, it’s never been more important to strike the right balance between strong, effective risk controls and a seamless customer experience.
Visa supports merchants in managing risk effectively and confidently approving more legitimate orders. But digital fraud doesn’t just impact merchants; it also affects financial institutions and issuers, with one study revealing that up to 30% of customers may leave their bank after a fraud event.²
Payment fraud is a key part of this broader ecosystem challenge, contributing to rising costs, customer attrition, and increased operational pressure. Here, we’ll look closely at how eCommerce fraud continues to evolve — what it is, how it works and how you can stay ahead of emerging threats. You’ll learn about the latest fraud tactics, the AI-driven tools and technologies enabling modern fraud detection and fraud prevention.
What is eCommerce fraud?
eCommerce fraud occurs when online payment systems or shopping platforms are exploited to gain money, goods or sensitive information through deception or error. It often involves the misuse of stolen payment data, fake identities or manipulated transactions — but not all cases are deliberate. Sometimes, legitimate shoppers make unintentional mistakes, which result in disputes that are later classified as fraud. This type of behavior, known as friendly fraud or first-party misuse (FPM), isn’t always criminal in intent but can still have significant financial and operational impacts on merchants.
As digital commerce expands, tactics have grown faster, more complex and harder to manage effectively — and fraud thrives where raw card data, static passwords and siloed signals leave security gaps. What once involved simple card theft has evolved into coordinated, technology-driven schemes that exploit every stage of the online shopping journey — from account creation to checkout and post-purchase disputes. For merchants, issuers and payment providers, this means defending against a dynamic threat that continually adapts to new controls and technologies.
What is card-not-present fraud?
The majority of eCommerce fraud occurs in card-not-present (CNP) transactions, where the physical card isn’t required to complete a purchase. Without in-person verification, fraudsters find more opportunities to exploit stolen or synthetic credentials. Global losses from CNP fraud are forecast to reach $43.6 billion by 2027, making it one of the costliest challenges in digital payments. Compared to card-present (CP) transactions, CNP fraud rates are 7.5 times higher, reflecting the vulnerability of online channels to unauthorized use.³
CNP attacks often overlap with other payment-related threats, such as real-time payment (RTP) fraud, refund and policy abuse and FPM, which is sometimes called ‘friendly fraud’. Each method undermines merchant revenue, increases operational costs and erodes customer trust. For a deeper look at how these patterns intersect with broader payment risks, see our related article on payment fraud.
What are some common eCommerce fraud threats?
eCommerce fraud encompasses a wide range of tactics, each targeting different points in the digital transaction flow. The most prevalent include:
- Account takeover: Fraudsters gain access to legitimate customer accounts through stolen credentials or phishing. Once inside, they make unauthorized purchases or change payment details.
- Merchant fraud: In marketplace environments, fraudulent sellers may accept payments without fulfilling orders, deliver counterfeit goods, or launder stolen funds through fake storefronts.
- New account or identity fraud: Criminals use stolen or fabricated identity information to open new accounts, obtain credit or exploit sign-up promotions.
- Mule schemes: Fraudsters recruit or coerce intermediaries (‘money mules’) to move funds or goods on their behalf, obscuring the true source of the activity and complicating investigation.
eCommerce fraud extends far beyond simple theft and requires constant vigilance, advanced analytics and collaboration across the digital payments industry.
How does eCommerce fraud work?
What are some common eCommerce fraud tactics?
- Enumeration and card testing: Fraudsters use automated bots to submit large volumes of small, low-value transactions to determine whether stolen or guessed card details are valid. Once a card number is confirmed, it can be exploited for larger purchases or sold on illicit marketplaces.
- Phishing and social engineering: Cybercriminals manipulate individuals (often customers or staff) into revealing confidential data such as login credentials, payment details or one-time passcodes. Once access is gained, fraudsters can move quickly, making unauthorized payments or taking over accounts.
- Skimming and digital skimming: Skimming traditionally involves hardware devices capturing card data at physical terminals, but in eCommerce it has evolved into digital skimming or formjacking. Fraudsters inject malicious scripts into checkout pages or third-party plugins to silently capture payment data as customers enter it online.
- Identity theft and synthetic identities: Stolen or fabricated identity information allows fraudsters to create new customer accounts, apply for credit or make fraudulent purchases. Synthetic identities, which are created by combining real and fake data, are particularly difficult to detect because they often pass standard verification checks.
- Malware and hacking: Attackers exploit vulnerabilities in merchant websites, APIs or third-party integrations to access customer data, manipulate transactions or plant malicious code. Smaller merchants are often targeted due to weaker cybersecurity controls, but large enterprises are not immune to coordinated attacks.
What is the impact of eCommerce fraud on businesses?
- Enterprises and merchants: Beyond direct revenue loss, fraud drives higher chargeback ratios, greater manual review costs and potential damage to brand reputation. However, overly cautious fraud filters can reduce acceptance rates and frustrate genuine customers.
- Consumers: Shoppers experience unauthorized transactions, account lockouts and long resolution times. This can lead to loss of confidence in online shopping and the brands they purchase from.
- Financial institutions: Issuers, acquirers and payment service providers absorb significant losses from fraud reimbursements and operational costs. When fraud erodes trust, customer churn increases, but on the other hand, overcorrection with stricter controls can also reduce approval rates and create friction across the payments chain.
- Payments ecosystem: At a macro level, rising fraud contributes to higher transaction costs, more regulatory oversight and reduced trust in digital commerce. When fraud thrives, everyone in the ecosystem — from merchants to issuers to consumers — feels the impact.
What can businesses do about eCommerce fraud?
For merchants and enterprises operating eCommerce sites, their strategic focus should revolve around reducing fraud while increasing legitimate approvals. Some practical steps include:
- Implement robust risk and fraud controls across the customer journey without causing unnecessary friction. The goal is to embed risk management within the payment and checkout flow so that good customers are minimally impacted while bad actors are blocked or challenged.
- Shift fraud screening from manual to automated processes. We’re already seeing this trend playing out, with merchants now screening orders digitally (via software or other technologies) at an average rate of 52%, compared to 23% manually (via human analysis).⁴
- Invest in AI and machine learning (ML) tools. Data-driven models can adapt to new fraud patterns faster than rule-based systems alone.
- Use Compelling Evidence (CE) frameworks (such as CE3.0) to block and reverse fraudulent disputes. This strengthens the merchant’s ability to defend against chargebacks and hold the liability with bad actors.
- Maintain strong anti-money laundering (AML) and anti-terrorist financing (ATF) programs in order to meet compliance requirements.
- Adopt a layered defense strategy combining multiple technologies and signals:
- Network intelligence and shared fraud-data across merchants/issuers
- Tokenization of payment credentials to minimize exposure
- Real-time fraud detection (behavioral analytics, velocity checks, device fingerprinting)
- Fraud management systems (case-management dashboards, alerting)
- Customer authentication (for example 3DS, biometrics, step-up challenge)
- Post-purchase monitoring (order anomalies, refund monitoring)
- Monitor, adapt and iterate continuously. Attackers use ever-evolving tactics, so your defense must be proactive and agile.
When these measures work together, the business can cut fraud losses and lift approval rates. At the same time, they can enable more good transactions, fewer false declines and a better customer experience.
How can Visa help prevent eCommerce fraud?
Visa provides a comprehensive suite of solutions designed to help merchants, issuers and acquirers mitigate fraud and optimize performance:
- Risk and fraud detection
- Visa Advanced Authorization (VAA)
- Visa Risk Manager (VRM)
- Visa Deep Authorization (VDA)
- Decision Manager (DM)
- Fraud Management Essentials (FME)
- Visa Protect Risk Insights (VPRI)
Visa enhanced authentication solutions
Post-purchase and dispute solutions
- Verifi’s Order Insight for CE3.0
- Resolve
- Analytics and management
Collectively, these solutions leverage Visa’s global network and AI-driven intelligence to prevent over $40 billion in fraud annually. These capabilities enable merchants to turn data into action, defend against evolving threats and grow their eCommerce offer with confidence.
User stories
Client identified 27% more fraud with VDA⁵
Visa partnered with a large issuer to tackle the growing challenge of card-not-present (CNP) fraud as digital transaction volumes continued to rise. The issuer’s objective was clear: reduce CNP fraud without increasing false positives, improve approval rates for legitimate transactions and strengthen cardholder trust and brand reputation.
To meet these goals, the issuer participated in a 90-day pilot of Visa Deep Authorization (VDA) across its consumer and small business debit portfolios. VDA uses deep learning and AI-driven risk modeling to assess transaction risk in real time, leveraging Visa’s global network data, cardholder insights and merchant profiles. This advanced approach enabled the issuer to detect more fraudulent transactions while maintaining a seamless experience for genuine customers.
During the pilot, VDA helped identify 27% more fraud for the consumer portfolio and 40% more fraud for small business accounts compared to the issuer’s existing fraud detection system — while maintaining a low false-positive rate of 5:1. This translated into substantial cost savings and a strong return on investment, demonstrating how effectively VDA can enable balanced fraud prevention with customer experience.
VRM helped a client realize a 31% decrease in fraud⁶
A medium-sized issuer in the Asia Pacific region, operating across two markets, was facing above-market fraud rates that were impacting both performance and customer confidence. Determined to reverse this trend, the issuer adopted Visa Risk Manager (VRM) in April 2020 to strengthen its fraud detection and prevention capabilities.
To further enhance outcomes, the issuer expanded its partnership by engaging Visa Managed Services for VRM later that year. This program provides access to Visa’s dedicated fraud experts, who work closely with issuers to fine-tune risk strategies, optimize rule performance and help ensure that the full potential of VRM is realized.
The results were immediate and measurable. Within three months of implementing Visa Managed Services, the issuer’s fraud rate dropped by 31%.⁷ In December alone, the optimized rules deployed through VRM successfully blocked 76% of attempted fraud, a dramatic improvement from 47% just three months earlier. Even more impressive, these gains came with improved precision — the issuer’s false positive ratio fell from 2:1 to under 1:1, demonstrating that fraud was reduced without compromising legitimate customer approvals.
FAQs
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Small to medium-sized businesses (SMBs) may not have large in-house fraud teams, but they can deploy risk-scoring systems that assign real-time risk scores to each transaction based on device, behavioral, geolocation, velocity and historical signals. Low-risk payments pass friction-free; higher-risk payments trigger additional checks (for example, multi-factor authentication or merchant review).
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Enterprises should adopt a layered defense strategy: unified risk management across domains (checkout, account creation, fulfillment, returns), global and cross-merchant data sharing, ML models tuned to enterprise transaction patterns, strong authentication and post-purchase monitoring. They should also work with partners (like merchants, issuers and payment networks) for broader intelligence.
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SMBs can protect their online store from fraud by enabling fraud scoring, setting velocity limits (such as the number of orders per IP/device in a time window), enforcing strong account password and verification practices, monitoring refund/refusal patterns and using an analytics dashboard to track payments.
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Issuers, acquirers and payment service providers can deploy tools like Visa Risk Manager, Visa Deep Authorization, decision engines that ingest network data (global authorizations, fraud signals), behavioral scoring engines, tokenization services, 3DS, shared merchant/issuer black-lists and dashboard-driven monitoring. These help institutions identify fraud patterns, manage approvals and support merchants.
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By accurately identifying high-risk transactions before fulfillment, merchants can reject or challenge likely fraud, thereby avoiding fraudulent fulfillments that lead to chargebacks. Moreover, when chargebacks do occur, tools like Verifi’s Order Insight for CE3.0 enable merchants to present compelling evidence via CE3.0 frameworks to dispute and reject chargebacks.
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eCommerce fraud typically refers to fraudulent orders, stolen credentials and the misuse of the checkout/fulfillment process (where the buyer is the fraudster). Merchant fraud refers to fraudulent or deceptive behavior by a merchant (or marketplace seller). This might be mis-shipping goods, delivering nothing and accepting payment or enabling illicit transactions.
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Retailers extend fraud detection by leveraging: device-fingerprinting across geographies, location-analytics (billing vs shipping mismatch), currency-optimized fraud models, international velocity checks, network intelligence (shared global fraud patterns), tokenization to reduce exposure and strong authentication (3DS, biometrics). They also align fulfillment controls and require additional verification for higher-risk zones or cross-border flows.
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Acquirers can support merchants by providing risk-scoring tools, shared global fraud-intelligence data, real-time alerting dashboards, onboarding-review tools for merchant accounts, chargeback and dispute-management services, guidance on best practices, aggregated reporting (benchmarking fraud rates, conversion rates) and access to network-level solutions (such as those provided by Visa). Acquirers act as a critical partner, helping merchants balance conversion and risk.
- 1 Droesch, B. (2024 September 30). Retail and Ecommerce Sales Benchmarks: Q4 2024 [Report]. Emarketer.
- 2 Ernst & Young LLP. (2024 May). Wealth and Asset Management Fraud Insights: Point of View—Results and insights (Second edition) [Report].
- Mattei, D. (2024 August). The future of e-commerce: Innovations to protect and enrich the online channel. [White paper]. Datos Insights.
- Visa Acceptance Solutions, Cybersource, The Merchant Risk Council (MRC), Verifi, and B2B International. (2025). 2025 Global eCommerce Payments & Fraud Report [Report].
- Visa. (2023). VisaNet data (Q4 2023).
- Visa. (2021 February). VisaNet data: Visa Managed Services for VRM.
- Comparing July-September 2020 averages to October-December 2020 averages.